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Why everyone was wrong on the recall – The referendum of Senator Giron

After the election, Victor Head and Pueblo Freedom and Rights said they won. State Senator Angela Giron said it was because of voter suppression. The media did their normal thing asking pundits what they thought instead of digging into the data. 

There was data and a poll that changes everything.

In the only empirical data outside of the voting results, Public Policy Pol…

After the election, Victor Head and Pueblo Freedom and Rights said they won. State Senator Angela Giron said it was because of voter suppression. The media did their normal thing asking pundits what they thought instead of digging into the data. 

There was data and a poll that changes everything.

In the only empirical data outside of the voting results, Public Policy Polling buried a poll showing some very alarming information for both sides. While initial national stories focused on why this poll was held back at PPP’s concern over its accuracy, if you read the numbers they tell a different story. 

I’m going to do this backwards and talk about what this means then dig into the numbers. It’s not that polls are perfect but this poll provides insight firsthand that reporting has not provided.

State Senator George Rivera and Pueblo Freedom and Rights are wrong when they say this is a referendum on guns. After months of hammering away on the Second Amendment and gun-rights, the poll, performed on the weekend of September 7, says Pueblo supported her votes but not her. They overwhelming supported expanding background checks and they are split evenly over limiting magazine capacity.

That means the election turned away from guns and into a referendum on Giron. The NRA, the GOP and the media all believe the election was on guns. The numbers from this poll do not support this.

Why did Giron lose?

You first have to look at Senator John Morse’s final numbers. In Colorado Springs, Morse lost in a manner expected in El Paso County. He lost 51 percent to 49 percent. With a short campaign he performed as expected but ran out of time. With another week he might have been able to secure more votes. But it sets the baseline that Senator Giron should have been equal to or have done better than Morse in votes.

Senator Giron lost 56 percent to 44 percent outspending the opposition, having a large get-out-the-vote campaign, and in a county with more time to vote. Everything was set-up for her to just get by. 

According to the poll, she lost hispanics and people under 45. Why?

It’s impossible to answer why but you can break down her campaign and say it was missing key things with these groups that hurt her campaign. 

The Hispanic & Women Vote

She seemed to lack key hispanic surrogates that would use their bases in support of her campaign. Missing was fellow legislator, State Representative Leroy Garcia. Her biggest ally in the campaign could have been Garcia but he was largely absent in support. 

Also missing were well known Pueblo Democrats–former State Senator Abel Tapia, former City Councilman Ray Aguilera and former County Commissioner Anthony Nunez. Her campaign did not inundate Pueblo with national Hispanics that would have provided easy press and star appeal. 

Was low Hispanic turnout to blame? From what the polls say, she had problems with Hispanic voters but the poll doesn’t elaborate why. When you compare the precinct turnout, Pueblo West turned out …

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