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Why everyone was wrong on the recall – The referendum of Senator Giron

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After the election, Victor Head and Pueblo Freedom and Rights said they won. State Senator Angela Giron said it was because of voter suppression. The media did their normal thing asking pundits what they thought instead of digging into the data. 

There was data and a poll that changes everything.

In the only empirical data outside of the voting results, Public Policy Polling buried a poll showing some very alarming information for both sides. While initial national stories focused on why this poll was held back at PPP’s concern over its accuracy, if you read the numbers they tell a different story. 

I’m going to do this backwards and talk about what this means then dig into the numbers. It’s not that polls are perfect but this poll provides insight firsthand that reporting has not provided.

State Senator George Rivera and Pueblo Freedom and Rights are wrong when they say this is a referendum on guns. After months of hammering away on the Second Amendment and gun-rights, the poll, performed on the weekend of September 7, says Pueblo supported her votes but not her. They overwhelming supported expanding background checks and they are split evenly over limiting magazine capacity.

That means the election turned away from guns and into a referendum on Giron. The NRA, the GOP and the media all believe the election was on guns. The numbers from this poll do not support this.

Why did Giron lose?

You first have to look at Senator John Morse’s final numbers. In Colorado Springs, Morse lost in a manner expected in El Paso County. He lost 51 percent to 49 percent. With a short campaign he performed as expected but ran out of time. With another week he might have been able to secure more votes. But it sets the baseline that Senator Giron should have been equal to or have done better than Morse in votes.

Senator Giron lost 56 percent to 44 percent outspending the opposition, having a large get-out-the-vote campaign, and in a county with more time to vote. Everything was set-up for her to just get by. 

According to the poll, she lost hispanics and people under 45. Why?

It’s impossible to answer why but you can break down her campaign and say it was missing key things with these groups that hurt her campaign. 

The Hispanic & Women Vote

She seemed to lack key hispanic surrogates that would use their bases in support of her campaign. Missing was fellow legislator, State Representative Leroy Garcia. Her biggest ally in the campaign could have been Garcia but he was largely absent in support. 

Also missing were well known Pueblo Democrats–former State Senator Abel Tapia, former City Councilman Ray Aguilera and former County Commissioner Anthony Nunez. Her campaign did not inundate Pueblo with national Hispanics that would have provided easy press and star appeal. 

Was low Hispanic turnout to blame? From what the polls say, she had problems with Hispanic voters but the poll doesn’t elaborate why. When you compare the precinct turnout, Pueblo West turned out to vote. The area is Republican and was more supportive of the recall group. Voter apathy was higher in precincts where Hispanics have stronger numbers.

What’s next?

Where do Pueblo Republicans go from here? It is tough to see how they win in 2014. Let’s just assume Democrats put up their best and safest option for SD 3. State Representative Leroy Garcia is the logical candidate for the Democrats. He was barely visible in support of Senator Giron and is untouched by the recall. He voted against the magazine capacity bill so he takes Rivera’s main issue away from him. 

Garcia would be candidate number one on many lists as Pueblo Democrats do not have a history of punishing candidates who don’t provide cover for other Democrats. This is a strictly Republican trait. 

If Garcia were to run, that leaves his house seat open. Unless the Pueblo County Democrats put a completely unlikely and incompetent candidate, it’s hard to see how they lose Garcia’s seat. 

Campaigns are unpredictable so this is all speculation but it is tough to paint a scenario where the Republicans can win both seats. For this to happen George Rivera would have to run a perfect campaign against a unlikely-to-win Democrat candidate. 

The poll results:

A majority of Puebloans were not opposed to two of the most controversial bills supported by Senator Giron. 

A majority of Puebloans were in favor of the expanding background checks.

Senator Giron lost Hispanics, women and younger voters. 

The PPP poll is bad news for both sides. Puebloans weren’t in agreement with Pueblo Freedom and Rights on the gun legislation but they didn’t approve of Senator Giron. 

How do you make sense of this? The poll confirms what PULP heard but we couldn’t report because it was not based in fact. There were anecdotal statements that some people didn’t care about guns, but they were not going to vote for the former senator.

A third of Democrats surveyed said they supported the recall. Eighty-four percent of Republicans and 59 percent of unaffiliated voters said they supported the recall. 

Giron also lost the voting blocks President Obama had won in his elections in Pueblo. From people aged 18 to 45, 58 percent surveyed supported the recall. That’s an incredible number against Senator Giron. 

Fifty-one percent of women supported the recall. Women, with a majority, supported both the limits on magazine capacity and background checks. 

Senator Giron lost Hispanics; 50 percent to 44 percent said they supported the recall. Here Hispanics split evenly at 47 percent  on capacity and were in favor of expanded background checks.

by John Rodriguez | @johnmrod

 

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For every contribution, we put 100% back into producing original and amazing journalism. That's a promise only a local and independent newsroom can promise. Take heart because you will fuel stories just like this one and the future of journalism.

Colorado

Western wild fires continue to rage as authorities worry over July 4 fireworks

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A growing wildfire destroyed more than 100 homes in the Colorado mountains, while other blazes across the parched U.S. West kept hundreds of other homes under evacuation orders and derailed holiday plans.

Authorities announced late Monday that a fire near Fort Garland, about 205 miles (330 kilometers) southwest of Denver, had destroyed 104 homes in a mountain housing development started by multimillionaire publisher Malcolm Forbes in the 1970s. The damage toll could rise because the burn area is still being surveyed.

Tamara Estes’ family cabin, which her parents had built in 1963 using wood and rocks from the land, was among the homes destroyed.

“I think it’s sinking in more now. But we’re just crying,” she said. “My grandmother’s antique dining table and her hutch are gone.”

“It was a sacred place to us,” she added.

Andy and Robyn Kuehler watched flames approach their cabin via surveillance video from their primary residence in Nebraska.

“We just got confirmation last night that the house was completely gone. It’s … a very sickening feeling watching the fire coming towards the house,” the couple wrote in an email Tuesday.

The blaze, labeled the Spring Fire, is one of six large wildfires burning in Colorado and is the largest at 123 square miles (318 square kilometers) — about five times the size of Manhattan. While investigators believe it was started by a spark from a fire pit, other fires, like one that began burning in wilderness near Fairplay, were started by lightning.

Nearly 60 large, active blazes are burning across the West, including nine in New Mexico and six each in Utah and California, according to the National Interagency Fire Center.

In Utah, authorities have evacuated 200 to 300 homes because of a growing wildfire near a popular fishing reservoir southeast of Salt Lake City amid hot temperatures and high winds. Several structures have been lost since the fire started Sunday, but it’s unclear how many, said Jason Curry of the Utah Division of Forest, Fire and State Lands.

Darren Lewis and his extended family planned to spend the Fourth of July at a cabin built nearly 50 years ago by his father and uncle in a wilderness area nestled between canyons and near a mountain river.

Instead, Lewis and his family will spend the holiday nervously waiting to hear if a half-century of family memories go up in smoke because of the fire, which has grown to 47 square miles (122 square kilometers).

“There’s a lot of history and memories that go into this cabin,” said Lewis, 44, of Magna, Utah. “The cabin we could rebuild, but the trees that we love would be gone. We’re just hoping that the wind blows the other way.”

Meanwhile, a wind-fueled wildfire in Northern California that continues to send a thick layer of smoke and ash south of San Francisco was threatening more than 900 buildings.

The massive blaze was choking skies with ash and smoke, prompting some officials to cancel Fourth of July fireworks shows and urge people to stay indoors to protect themselves from the unhealthy air.

At least 2,500 people have been told to evacuate as the so-called County Fire continues to spread, said Anthony Brown, a spokesman with the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection.

Brown said the blaze, which started Saturday and is surging through rugged terrain northwest of Sacramento, has grown to 113 square miles (294 square kilometers) amid hot and dry weather expected throughout the day. It was 15 percent contained Tuesday.

“The weather is better than what we had over the weekend. But it’s still hampering our efforts and it’s an area of concern,” he said.

So far this year, wildfires have burned 4,200 square miles in the United States, according to the fire center. That’s a bit below last year’s acreage to date — which included the beginning of California’s devastating fire season — but above the 10-year average of 3,600 square miles.

Because of the Independence Day holiday, authorities are also concerned about the possibility of campfires or fireworks starting new fires because of the dry, hot conditions. In Colorado, many communities have canceled firework displays, and a number of federal public lands and counties have some degree of fire restrictions in place, banning things like campfires or smoking outdoors.

In Arizona, large swaths of national forests and state trust land have been closed since before Memorial Day. Some cities have canceled fireworks displays because of extreme fire danger.

In New Mexico, all or part of three national forests remain closed because of the threat of wildfire, putting a damper on holiday camping plans. The forests that are open have strict rules, especially when it comes to fireworks.

“We’re just urging people to use extreme caution,” said Wendy Mason, a spokeswoman for the New Mexico State Forestry Division. “We want people to have fun and enjoy themselves, but we prefer they leave the fireworks shows to the professionals.”

____

Associated Press writers Brady McCombs in Salt Lake City; Susan Montoya Bryan in Albuquerque, New Mexico; Olga R. Rodriguez in San Francisco; Felicia Fonseca in Flagstaff, Arizona; and Alina Hartounian in Phoenix contributed to this report.

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More firefighters called in to rein in Southern Colorado fire

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Crews struggled to rein in a wildfire that was spreading in several different directions Sunday in southern Colorado.
More firefighters were arriving to battle the blaze that has prompted the evacuation of more than 2,000 homes.
“It’s a very challenging fire, I’ll be honest with you, with all the wind changes,” Shane Greer, an incident commander with the Rocky Mountain Incident Management Team, told residents Sunday.
Authorities said the fire east of Fort Garland was estimated at 64 square miles (166 sq. kilometers) after unpredictable winds pushed the fire both north and south over the weekend.
About 500 firefighters have worked to contain the flames since the fire began Wednesday. A second team arrived in the area Sunday and plans to take over fighting the fire north of Highway 160.
The first team will focus on the area south of the highway.
“Usually with a fire we can chase it … we haven’t been able to chase this because it keeps going in at least three different directions,” Greer said.
Authorities said they began assessing some areas this weekend to track destroyed or damaged structures. But they cautioned that conditions remain dangerous and said they want to be sure that information is correct before notifying property owners.
The fire was expected to remain active and grow in intensity with a warm and dry forecast on Sunday.
Highway 160 remains closed and officials said they could not estimate when it will reopen or when the evacuation orders will end.
The Costilla County Sheriff’s Office on Saturday said a man was being held on suspicion of arson in connection with the fire. It is not clear if Jesper Joergensen, 52, has an attorney.
At Sunday’s public update, officials said they do not believe Joergensen started the fire intentionally.
State emergency management officials reported nine other fires remained active around the state on Sunday. Officials near Durango hoped that a cold front would slow down one of those. The fire began a month ago and is estimated at 77 square miles.
The Durango Herald reported that authorities planned to relocate some crews and equipment to help firefighters guarding communities as the flames moved north.

One more thing...

Local and independent journalism is under threat in the West and you change that.  With corporate raiders slashing newsrooms across the West, the PULP is one of the "Last Locals" in Colorado to produce original, compelling journalism missing in today's profit hungry world. But that costs money, time and hard work. We don't believe in spamming you with ads or putting up restrictive paywalls and that's why we need your help.

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Get to Crested Butte Colorado for a wildflower wonderland

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Crested Butte’s wildflowers cast a spell on Michelle Bivens at an early age.

“It goes back to about 6 or 7 years old,” she recalls, when her family camped every summer among the vibrant arrays, library books in hand to identify the great variety that makes the mountain town “the wildflower capital of Colorado.”

With a family of her own, she bounced around from Colorado Springs, to Austin, Texas, to Woodland Park over 22 years. But in 2012, Bivens moved the husband and kids to the valley that stayed in her dreams.

“There’s no place like it,” she says — a truth that comforts wildflower buffs in dry years like these when their backyards don’t yield the typical burst.

Bivens is executive director of the Crested Butte Wildflower Festival, the weeklong celebration that starts July 6 and will mean more to flora fanatics of the Pikes Peak region and beyond.

That includes George Cameron. He’s a founder of the Native Plant Society’s local chapter, a retired botany professor who’s more than disappointed by what he’s seeing, or not, in his go-to spot, Stratton Open Space.

“This is the worst possible year,” Cameron says. “I live for the wildflowers every year, and it’s very depressing when they’re not there.”

He treasures higher displays on the mountain, those that grace Elk Park and Devils Playground, for example. And while he has yet to visit with “peak season” approaching, he fears the flowers haven’t had the moisture to bloom in abundance.

“There’s been no snowpack, nothing for them,” he says. “I’m not hopeful it’ll be very good this year.”

But for the fields and hills around Crested Butte, his faith is strong. “That’s because of the soil.”

While Pikes Peak’s granite is hydrophobic, washing away moisture, the earth surrounding the glacier-formed area of Crested Butte is composed of shale that better retains water. Snow melts, and life beneath has a better chance of emerging in all its glory.

Indeed, judging by photos out of Crested Butte, the flowers are popping a week before the festival. Snow melted earlier than usual, Bivens says, and the killing cold winds didn’t strike later.

“The good news is the flowers are coming early, and they didn’t freeze,” she says.

So Jason Odell is gearing up for a visit. The Colorado Springs photographer and teacher plans to soon escort clients to Crested Butte, to capture the scene he’s been scouting for almost two decades.

 

He encourages students to enjoy the landscape, the perfect beauty pairing with iconic Colorado ruggedness, but to also pay attention to details. He wants them to kneel before a flower, to photograph the changing shades of a columbine, the dancing of lupines, the petals splaying from an Indian paintbrush’s stem.

“I think wildflowers are so popular because they’re so ephemeral; they’re only around for a few months or sometimes even a few weeks,” Odell says. “And they have this diversity of color that normally we don’t get in our everyday landscape. … It’s being able to say you saw something totally unique.”

The flowers “pull you out of ordinary existence,” Cameron says. In his Pikes Peak Community College pupils, he sought to instill a reverence for the different species, expressing how they all grow on different terms, some appearing only once in a generation, and how they all can exist in harmony.

“There’s always something new to find out,” says Tom Zeiner, a geologist who’s made wildflowers his focus in retirement.

Naturally, he has a summer home in Crested Butte, where during the festival he leads educational hikes, guiding from the valley floor to the high-alpine zones where the colors change, where it’s common for him to spot a flower he’s never noticed before. Already, Zeiner says, he’s observed impressive swaths of glacier lilies and other classics.

But the early bloom highlights a trend concerning climate change onlookers. If the flowers show earlier, will pollinators such as bees and hummingbirds be around to ensure they last?

More immediate threats are the rising number of explorers who pick the flowers and trample off-trail, Bivens says. The nonprofit festival aims to make people “appreciate the wild places we have,” she says. What better teacher than the fragile, mysterious wildflowers?

“It really is quite a miracle that unfolds,” she says.

___

Information from: The Gazette, http://www.gazette.com

One more thing...

Local and independent journalism is under threat in the West and you change that.  With corporate raiders slashing newsrooms across the West, the PULP is one of the "Last Locals" in Colorado to produce original, compelling journalism missing in today's profit hungry world. But that costs money, time and hard work. We don't believe in spamming you with ads or putting up restrictive paywalls and that's why we need your help.

For every contribution, we put 100% back into producing original and amazing journalism. That's a promise only a local and independent newsroom can promise. Take heart because you will fuel stories just like this one and the future of journalism.
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